Bitcoin Mining Calculator
Power cost, solo block chance and expected value – honestly calculated for Bitaxe, NerdQaxe & Co. Pick a miner or enter your own numbers.
Your setup
Results
- Power cost
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- Solo chance per day
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- Chance ≥1 block
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- Expected value / month
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Honest note: solo mining is a lottery, not an investment. The expected value is a statistical average – in reality you win rarely, but then a whole block at once.
How the solo mining chance is calculated
Your chance of finding a Bitcoin block equals your share of the total network hashrate. With 1.3 TH/s against a network of over 1,000 EH/s, that share is tiny – about 1 in 100 million per block. But the network draws a new winner roughly every 10 minutes, 144 times a day, year after year. That is exactly the appeal of solo mining hardware: minimal power cost, a real – if small – chance of 3.125 BTC, and full sovereignty over your own miner.
Power cost matters more than hashrate
Open-source miners like the Bitaxe Gamma draw 15–20 watts – less than a router. Even at 30 ct/kWh that is only around €4 per month. Larger models like the NerdQaxe++ (~80 W) or NerdOctaxe (~200 W) multiply your chance while staying far below the cost of classic ASIC miners.
Frequently asked questions
How realistic is finding a solo block? +
Solo mining is a lottery: your chance per block equals your share of the total network hashrate. A Bitaxe Gamma (1.3 TH/s) hits a block statistically once every few thousand years – but every ~10 minutes there is a new draw, and someone with small hardware does win from time to time.
What does the expected value mean? +
It is the statistical average: block chance × block reward × Bitcoin price. In solo mining you almost always earn nothing for a long time – and then possibly a whole block (currently 3.125 BTC plus fees) at once.
Which numbers should I enter for network hashrate and BTC price? +
Both change daily. The calculator uses editable defaults – simply enter the current network hashrate (in EH/s) and BTC price for a precise result.
Pool or solo? +
A pool pays tiny amounts steadily, solo pays extremely rarely but everything at once. Most home miners run solo (lottery) because with small hashrate the pool payout barely covers the fun anyway.