Lottery miner explained: how a Bitaxe finds a whole block
By Lukas Henning · 28. March 2026 · 6 min read · Updated on 05. June 2026
A lottery miner is a small home miner that mines solo – i.e. tries to find a complete Bitcoin block entirely on its own. If it hits, there is the full block reward; if it does not hit, there is nothing. Hence the name: it is a lottery with a very high jackpot and a very small stake.
How does the block lottery work?
Bitcoin mining is at its core a gigantic guessing game: miners look for a number with which the next block hash falls below a target value set by the network. Each attempt (hash) is like a lottery ticket. Your Bitaxe generates over a trillion of them per second – but the entire network does a hundred million times more. Whoever finds the matching value first gets to write the block and collects the reward.
What do you get from a hit?
Currently the block reward is 3.125 BTC plus the transaction fees of the block – depending on the price, several hundred thousand euros, for a single found block. With a lottery miner this entire sum goes to you, because you mine solo and not in a pool.
How high is the chance, concretely?
Honestly: very small – but never zero. Your share of the global hashrate determines the probability. At a network hashrate in the order of ~800 EH/s, roughly:
- Bitaxe Gamma (~1.3 TH/s): on statistical average one block every ~12,000 years.
- NerdQaxe ++ (~4.8 TH/s): on average every ~3,000 years.
- NerdOctaxe (~12 TH/s): on average every ~1,300 years.
That sounds hopeless – but statistically it is not entirely: every single block (every ~10 minutes) is a new, independent attempt. In recent years there have been several documented cases where exactly such a tiny miner actually found a block. Unlikely does not mean impossible.
More hashrate = better chance
The more hashrate, the higher the hit probability – linearly. A NerdOctaxe with ~12 TH/s has roughly ten times the chance of a single Bitaxe. Still, nothing is guaranteed, and whether the extra consumption is worth it depends on your motivation. Whether operation pays off overall is examined in Solo mining – is it worth it?
Approach it with the right attitude: you pay a few euros of electricity for an exciting hobby – and the possible block is the icing on the cake, not the plan.
Want to draw a ticket yourself? The cheapest entry is the Bitaxe Gamma 601, the best block chance is offered by the NerdOctaxe.
Written by
Lukas Henning · Mining-Redakteur & Hardware-Experte
Lukas beschäftigt sich seit Jahren mit Bitcoin-Mining und betreibt mehrere Open-Source-Miner wie Bitaxe und NerdQaxe im eigenen Zuhause. Für Open Source Miners testet er Hardware, dokumentiert Setups und übersetzt Mining-Technik in verständliche Anleitungen – praxisnah, ehrlich und ohne Hype.
